How to EXPLOIT Betfair

** Further Update **

I’ve had second thoughts and decided not to charge for this calculator.  I will add it to this site over the next few days and announce it here.

*** UPDATE ***

I have so many subscribers to this post, I am going to create a special page on free-money-making-tips.com which will show you how to use Betfair to lock in profits. It will be membership only and I will set the membership cost very low. I think it will be soomething like 5 dollars a month. Now when you start applying the system and start winning consistently you won’t even need to use the system because you get a ‘feel’ for odds and stakes. But the choice will be yours to use it or not. Keep subscribing and I’ll announce when it’s live

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If you are familiar with Betfair or any of the other betting exchanges, you will understand that you place and lay bets with other people just like yourself. You are not placing a bet with a bookmaker, you are placing a bet with someone else who thinks the selection you want to bet to win, will lose. If it does lose, the other punter wins your money. If it does win, the other punter loses and he pays you. It’s as simple as that. If you don’t have an account with Betfair, just join clicking this special link and they’ll credit your account with a free £25 when you sign up.

You can either bet that something will happen (e.g a horse will win or a team will win etc), or you can bet that something will NOT happen (e.g that a horse will not win, or a team will lose a match)

Betting that something will not happen is called laying. In this case you are taking on the role of a bookmaker. You lay odds and take other peoples bets in the understanding that if you lose, you have to pay those other people their winnings.

EXAMPLE. There is a 5 horse race and you think horse 1 will win it. Now you can either bet on horse 1 or you can lay horses 2 to 10. When you lay odds, you do need to have sufficient money in your account to cover any loss. This is your exposure. Let’s work through the 5 horse
race example:

Horse 1 is 2/1

Horse 2 is 6/4

Horse 3 is 4/1

Horse 4 is 8/1

Horse 5 is 20/1

You can see that in this race there are two fancied horses - numbers 1 and 2. Number 3 has a chance but 4 and 5 are the rank outsiders. Most of the money will be on the two favourites but there are ALWAYS people who will bet on outsiders if the price is right.

Now on the betting exchanges, the odds are always expressed in decimal, rather than fractions. When we express 2 to 1 odds as a fraction we mean for every 1 unit you stake you get 2 units back, plus your original 1 unit. So 2/1 would be expressed as 3.0. Again, take 9/4 which works
out at 2.25, plus your 1 initial stake back is expressed as 3.25 as a decimal. So to convert any fractional odds to decimal, just divide the top number by the bottom number, then add 1 to the result. That will be the decimal odds you see in the exchanges.

Now that we understand that, lets convert the above example into decimal odds so it’s easier to visualise.

Horse 1 is 3.0

Horse 2 is 2.5

Horse 3 is 5.0

Horse 4 is 9.0

Horse 5 is 21.0

Now let’s walk through a few options so you understand what we’re trying to do here.

First let’s see what happens when you bet $10 on each horse at the prices stated (Throughout this guide I’ll use the $ to represent currency, but it could jsust as easily be GBP or EURO etc). Your total stake is $50. Your winnings will obviously be different depending on which horse wins, so:

Horse You Win Profit/Loss

Horse 1 $30 -$20

Horse 2 $25 -$25

Horse 3 $50 0

Horse 4 $90 +$40

Horse 5 $210 +$160

So immediately from this you can see that if either of the two favourites win (which is the most likely outcome) you will lose overall. However, if the outsiders win, you will make a profit, but this is the most unlikely outcome and this is reflected in their odds.

Now at the start of this I said I thought horse 1 was going to win. Bearing that in mind we can now lay horse 2 because you think it will lose. Punters that think horse 2 will win can get 2.5 because that’s the price of it at the moment. But you can offer the same or BETTER odds if you want. You could offer 3.0 or 4.0 if you wanted. You could also offer less, but nobody would want to take you up on 2.0 when they can get 2.5 or better from somebody else. So you have to match or
better the current odds. So let’s say you match the 2.5 odds and lay horse 2 for 2.5. Your next question is how much you are prepared to risk to lose. Let’s say you have $100 in your account and you are prepared to risk $25 on this race. You decide to lay horse 2 for $5 @2.5. Now that means that if horse 2 wins you will lose not $5, you will lose $7.50. The other punter who placed a $5 bet with you on horse 2 at 2.5 wins $7.50 from you and gets his $5 stake back. If horse 2
lost, you would win his $5.

So you can see that if you lay horse 4 for $5 @ 9.0 and it won, you would lose $40. That’s because someone placed a $5 bet with you on horse 4 at odds of 9.0. So they win 8 times $5, and get their stake back. Your exposure when laying long odds is much greater than if you
lay favourites.

You can usually afford to lay favs for more than you would outsiders. Let’s consider another example. You lay the favourite horse 2 for $50 @ 2.50 and it loses. You win $50. But at the same time you also bet on horse 1 @ 3.0 for $10 and it won, so you win $20 plus your $10 stake
back. You’ve had a good result.

If you are lucky, you can sometimes find a race that is ‘over-round’. This is a term used by bookmakers and means it would be possible to bet on every selection to guarantee a win. I won’t dwell on this because they are rare.

The above example was to give you a feel for either betting or laying. We’ll now look at football, where the opportunity to make serious money is real. Here we go..

The great thing about football is there are only two teams and only 3 possible results to the match. You get either a home win, away win or draw. By studying the odds carefully you can bet on all 3 outcomes to lock in a guaranteed win regardless of outcome. You can also bet on
exact scores, first scores, number or corners and a whole host of other things.

I am going to show you a way to dramatically INCREASE your chances of winning in every football match you bet on by usting Betfair, but there are some ground rules to learn first.

1. NEVER bet with more than you can afford to lose. This is very important. Some of the tactics I explain require you to have a cash float in your betting account to cover potential losses, or your exposure. The more you can cover the more you can win, but likewise, the more you can lose. As a rule of thumb for a beginner, put $100 in your betting account try to increase it to $130 on your first Saturday. That would be a nice target to aim for - a 30% gain on your first betting day using this method.

2. Don’t get greedy. I’ll show you how to set a target and when you hit it, quit for the day. Likewise, if you are down on a bet or showing a loss, you need to get out of your position immediately to ‘cut your losses’. You do not wait and ‘hope’ for a goal or a miracle. (This will become clearer soon as I update this guide).

3. Apply the rules blindly. Don’t choose matches that you have a personal interest in.

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